Lake Burien in the snow. Photo by Kay Storhoff.

UPDATE 3:40 p.m., 1/16/12: The National Weather Service issued a revised ‘Winter Storm Watch‘ Monday afternoon, calling for two more rounds of snow – up to 3 inches through Tuesday, and up to 14 inches through Wednesday.

Also, noted UW Meteorologist Cliff Mass warned on his blog Monday afternoon that this could be “the biggest snowstorm in years”:

“The bottom line is that there is a serious threat on Wednesday of 8-15 inches of snow over the region, with a minimal turn over to rain. The biggest snowstorm in years. Anyway, before anyone goes out and buys a snowblower, lets see what tonight’s runs show. If they continue this trend then Slushmageddon might be replaced by Snowmageddon. In almost any conceivable case, Wednesday morning is going to be very problematic for travel…I suspect there will be a lot of school cancellations and the like.

The main roads around Seattle are in very good shape now, but the Wednesday event could dwarf the weekend snow.”

As always, we encourage our Readers to stock up and be prepared to hunker down to ride this system out. Oh, and don’t forget to actually enjoy the snow!

We’ll keep updating the blog as we learn of any changes from the weather peeps; here’s the latest warning:

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON… …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING…

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS…SEATTLE…TACOMA…BREMERTON… SHELTON.

* TIMING…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOLER UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…AT THIS TIME UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS…SO ROADWAYS MAY FREEZE. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAYS STORM MAY BRING 6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAIN IMPACT…EXTREME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINTER WEATHER. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA…CARRY AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…WATER…AND BLANKETS IN CASE OF EMERGENCY.

Here’s this week’s forecast:

M.L.King Day: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 36. South southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. South southwest wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow showers. High near 35. South southwest wind 8 to 11 mph becoming northeast. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 28. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north northeast. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Northeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 10pm. Snow level 600 feet. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday: Rain. High near 46. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39.

Friday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44.

Friday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44.

Saturday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35.

Sunday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42.

Sunday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 38.

Monday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45.

Sea-Tac Airport broke a rainfall record for Sunday (May 15), with .81 of an inch falling before 6 p.m., beating the .56 record from 2001.

For the first half of May, the total rainfall amount at the airport is 1.79 – already higher than normal rainfall totals for the entire month of 1.78 – and we still have half a month left!

Olympia is just .03 inches shy of their record, and a few places have already eclipsed their normal rainfall amounts for the entire month of May.

Did someone say that we’re actually in Spring right now?

But UW Meteorologist Cliff Mass says on his blog:

But want some good news?

Most of the models are now indicating a major improvement towards the end of next week and next weekend….we are talking warm and getting into the 70s! Dry. Suitable for raking out the moss in your grass.

Here’s the forecast for the rest of this week from the National Weather Service (things are looking better starting around Thursday):

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 48. South southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Southwest wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Southwest wind between 3 and 9 mph.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Calm wind becoming west northwest between 4 and 7 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northeast wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 66.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.

by Scott Schaefer

The recent and tragic news reverberating from last Friday’s devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan has caused a lot of concern for people living in the northwest, who wonder what might happen if a major quake and wave were to strike here.

Several scientists have been working to assess tsunami hazards within Puget Sound communities, including Burien, to provide information for planning and mitigation based on a 7.0+ tremor on the Seattle Fault, which runs from Dyes Inlet on the west through downtown Seattle and through Lake Washington. Two scientists who’ve published a website study are Shun-ichi Koshimura and Harold Mofjeld (read it here: http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/pugetsound/pre2).

According to their website, 1100 years ago it is believed that a tsunami was caused by a large quake on that fault (this was an inner-Puget Sound wave and not one that traveled through the ocean).

“According to the recent seismological studies, the Seattle Fault is believed to be a zone of thrust or reverse faults that strikes through Seattle in the densely populated Puget Lowland of western Washington,” reads a statement on the study’s website. “The structure of the Seattle Fault zone still have great uncertainty and there exist a number of interpretations.”

Illustration of the Seattle Fault.

Scientists have created video simulations of what a tsunami created by a 7.0+ magnitude quake on the Seattle Fault might do, and their models are based on a 1998 sonar mapping project of Puget Sound (we remember the ships off Burien’s beaches, and the low, deep occasional rumbling of their testing). Then, in 2000, they recorded the demolition of the Kingdome with seismic recorders. Put together, they “inferred that the length of the Seattle Fault is at least 70 km and the fault could produce a M=7.2 to 7.5 earthquake for a fault length of 70 km and fault plane depths between 20 to 30 km.”

While the tsunami simulations are cool, it’s hard to determine exactly the size range of waves that might hit, and what kind of damage it’d cause, but we think that this is better than nothing.

Here’s one video simulation that we took the liberty to enlarge, in order to see what effect a Seattle Fault earthquake tsunami might do to our shorelines:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s a more enlarged version, showing how the brunt of the (simulated) wave would hit Seahurst Park Beach and the north side of Three Tree Point, then seemingly wash over most of the point as it heads towards Tacoma; then a second wave might hit the south side of the point:

Click here to view the embedded video.

And here’s one NOAA made that shows the possible effects on Seattle:

Click here to view the embedded video.

And here’s a video we hadn’t seen yet, taken from a Coast Guard helicopter as the Japanese tsunami hit Crescent City, CA:

Click here to view the embedded video.

And news footage of the wave hitting Santa Cruz, CA:

Click here to view the embedded video.

So, are YOU prepared to make it through a huge quake and the impact of a local tsunami? Please Comment below…

Highline Community College’s Marine Science and Technology (MaST) Center is presenting a special seminar on “Jumbo” Squid with David Eric Hamm, NOAA Fisheries Research Scientist/Contractor, this Saturday, Oct. 17th at their location near the Redondo Beach Pier in Des Moines.

Rumor has it that there may even be a dissection taking place.

Here are the details:

WHAT: Special seminar on “Jumbo” (aka Humboldt) Squid with David Eric Hamm, NOAA Fisheries Research Scientist/Contractor

WHEN: Saturday, October 17 12:00 – 12:45

WHERE: Highline Community College MaST Center, located near the Redondo Beach Park in Des Moines

INFO: From their website:

They’re Big, They’re Here and They’re Squid Jumbo Squid as Harbingers of Ecosystem Change! Dosidicus gigas, the Humboldt or Jumbo squid is a voracious predator with a unique ecology.

The ongoing range expansion of this creature, coincident with changes in the California Current suggest that something larger is afoot.

Are these changes indication of global change? What will the impact be to our fisheries and the ecosystem of the West Coast? Come to the MaST Center, and find out.

Please join us to hear David Eric Hamm, NOAA Fisheries Research Scientist/Contractor

More info here.